ADNOC Gas Beats Q2 Guidance at USD 665 Million, Builds Strait of Hormuz Disruption Into Q3 Outlook

ADNOC Gas reported net income of USD 665 million for the second quarter of 2026 on August 10, 2026, above its guidance range of USD 400 million to USD 600 million, and set its third-quarter forecast on the explicit assumption that maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted.

The company expects Q3 2026 net income of USD 600 million to USD 800 million under that assumption. Full-year 2026 net income is put at USD 3.5 billion to USD 4 billion, conditional on maritime operations being fully restored by the fourth quarter of 2026 and pricing realizations normalizing. Shipping access is treated as a named variable in the earnings outlook rather than a background caveat.

The quarter also absorbed damage on land. ADNOC Gas responded to security-related incidents at the Habshan site on 3 and 8 April, and gas supply has been restored to 85%, ahead of the year-end target set in May.

Alongside the results, the board approved a quarterly dividend of USD 940 million payable in September 2026, in line with a commitment to annual dividend growth of 5% through 2030.

The company took final investment decisions and awarded engineering, procurement and construction contracts for Phases 2 and 3 of its Rich Gas Development (RGD) project. The awards total USD 8.2 billion: USD 3.9 billion for Phase 2 to Wison Engineering and USD 4.3 billion for Phase 3 to Tecnimont.

Added to the USD 5 billion already committed to Phase 1, total investment in RGD reaches USD 13.2 billion. Phase 2 adds a natural gas processing train at the Habshan facility, the same site hit by the April incidents. Phase 3 adds a natural gas liquids fractionation train at Ruwais, increasing recovery of higher-value liquids from rich natural gas for export.

Those decisions lift the targeted EBITDA growth to 60% by 2030 versus 2023, an upgrade from the previously communicated target of more than 40% over 2023-2029. Delivering it requires approximately USD 28 billion of investment between 2026 and 2030.

The capital program spans four megaprojects: Ruwais LNG, Maximizing Ethane Recovery and Monetization (MERAM), RGD and Estidama, together expected to generate USD 13.4 billion in In-Country Value, with MERAM delivery anticipated in 2027.

For buyers, the scale of the supplier matters as much as the shipping lane. ADNOC Gas supplies approximately 60% of the United Arab Emirates' sales gas needs and serves end-customers in more than 20 countries. A producer of that reach guiding a quarter on the assumption of continued maritime disruption gives offtakers and traders a dated, quantified reference point for how a chokepoint translates into earnings.

The gap between the two guidance frames sets the size of the exposure. A Q3 range of USD 600 million to USD 800 million against a full-year range of USD 3.5 billion to USD 4 billion implies the fourth quarter carries the recovery, and the company has tied that recovery to two conditions: restored maritime operations and normalized pricing realizations. The USD 940 million quarterly dividend and the 5% annual growth commitment through 2030 sit above the low end of the Q3 income range.

The capital commitment runs on a separate clock. The USD 8.2 billion of EPC awards and the USD 28 billion five-year investment plan were confirmed in the same release that flagged continued shipping disruption, with the 60% EBITDA growth target dated to 2030 rather than to the resolution of the current quarter.