Itau BBA Sees Petrobras EV per Barrel Falling to USD 8.5 on Foz do Amazonas Find
Itau BBA calculates that Petrobras would see its enterprise value per barrel of reserves drop from USD 12.7 to USD 8.5 if the Foz do Amazonas basin delivers, a level below that of global peers. The bank ties that repricing to a market value of BRL 811 billion by the end of 2026.
The trigger was one well. Hydrocarbons were identified at the Morpho well, off the coast of the state of Amapa, sending positive signals for the company. Specialists cited in the coverage stress that the presence of those elements does not on its own confirm commercially significant oil and gas reserves.
Market optimism around the valuation rests on the exploration potential of the Foz do Amazonas basin, presented as a new productive frontier for the state-controlled producer. Petrobras has separately reported indications of oil in the basin.
The reserve arithmetic explains the multiple compression. EPE, the energy research agency, projects 5,7 billion recoverable barrels in Foz do Amazonas alone, which would lift Brazil's proven oil reserves by 33 percent and Petrobras's own reserves by up to 55 percent. Across the whole Margem Equatorial, made up of five basins, EPE estimated a potential of 41 billion barrels in its PDE 2035 plan. ANP, the national petroleum agency, projects 30 billion barrels for the same area, below the EPE figure.
FGV-IBRE puts a gross value of BRL 3,8 trillion on the up to 6 billion recoverable barrels in Foz do Amazonas. That calculation assumes Brent at USD 70 per barrel and an exchange rate of BRL 5,40 to the dollar.
The cost side is what makes the multiple credible to buyers. Extraction costs observed in Guyana, an oil region contiguous to the Margem Equatorial, run between USD 15 and USD 30 per barrel, even in deep water. ExxonMobil operates in that Guyanese region with a high profit margin, according to the report cited.
Analysts are not banking it. Monique Greco, Oil and Gas analyst at Itau BBA, said additional appraisal activity will be needed to determine the extent of the discovery, the characteristics of the reservoir and, ultimately, whether the accumulation can be developed commercially. The bank itself says it is still early to fold the discovery into its long-term investment plan.
The timeline argument comes from the pre-salt. Itau BBA cites the Buzios field, the main pre-salt reference, which took roughly three years between initial discovery and declaration of commerciality, and five more years before it began producing.
Spending is already committed ahead of that confirmation. Petrobras will invest BRL 3,3 billion in exploration in Foz do Amazonas, according to a report dated August 16. Petrobras and Transpetro announced BRL 2,8 billion of investments in Amazonas in a May 25 report.
The balance sheet the market is repricing is already large. Petrobras posted a profit of BRL 110,6 billion in 2025 and projects up to BRL 125 billion in 2026, according to a March 5 report.
UOL - Economia covered the BRL 811 billion valuation in an August 23 article. The Daily Journal page carrying the summary is dated August 23, published at 06:01 under the Financas section.