Petrobras Ran 200,000 bpd Above Target in Q2, CEO Says Output Will Likely Beat Full-Year Goal

Petrobras produced 200,000 barrels per day above its own target in the April-June quarter, chief executive Magda Chambriard said on Friday, and the company will "very probably" exceed its production goals for the year.

Output averaged 2.69 million bpd in the second quarter, up 15.2% year on year. Chambriard made the remarks during a conference with market analysts presenting second-quarter operational and financial results.

The company averaged roughly 2.6 million bpd across the first half against a full-year oil production target of 2.5 million bpd, which carries a 4% tolerance either side. Petrobras reaffirmed a projection of production above 2.5 million bpd for the year, according to its press office.

Chambriard said 2.7 million bpd "is a good number" at least through the end of the year, and output should stay near that level in the coming months. That level pulls forward a peak the company had penciled in for 2028.

The published trajectory has output at 2.6 million bpd in 2027, peaking at 2.7 million bpd in 2028, then easing back to 2.6 million bpd in 2029. Holding 2.7 million bpd now would put barrels into global crude balances roughly two years ahead of that schedule, on the company's own numbers.

Chambriard attributed the beat to higher efficiency and the pulling forward of projects. New platforms arriving and the ramp-up of units recently brought onstream will let the company hit planned results and very probably exceed them, she said: "exceeding results is something we like to deliver without promising beforehand".

Decline management explains part of the gap between plan and delivery. The current administration has cut the production decline rate in mature fields to 4% from 12% at the start of its tenure, Chambriard said. Each percentage point of avoided decline on a base above 2.5 million bpd is material volume that never has to be replaced by new drilling.

The production result fed straight into earnings. Petrobras said on Thursday that second-quarter net profit nearly doubled from the same period a year earlier, driven by higher production, larger crude exports and a sharp rise in international prices for the commodity.

For traders and refiners outside the producing region, the combination that matters is volume plus export orientation. A producer running 200,000 bpd above its stated plan, with rising exports and a stated intention to hold near a peak level it had scheduled for later in the decade, changes the supply side of the arithmetic before any policy decision does.

The guidance band itself leaves room. A 4% tolerance on a 2.5 million bpd target spans a wide range, and first-half delivery of about 2.6 million bpd already sits above the midpoint. Chambriard's framing was that the company prefers not to promise an upgrade it has not yet booked.