Petrobras Lifts Brazilian Oil Output 15.2% as Gulf Strikes Push Brent to USD 90.74

Petrobras raised its Brazilian crude production 15.2% year on year in the second quarter, to 2.69 million barrels per day, in the same week that renewed United States and Iran strikes across the Persian Gulf lifted September Brent futures 7.9% to USD 90.74 a barrel.

The volume and price legs landed together on Wednesday the 29th. PETR3 rose 2.35% to BRL 47.51 and PETR4 gained 1.92% to BRL 42.00. Crude jumped roughly 8% that session, breaking the recent downward cycle amid the resumption of attacks between the United States and Iran in the Middle East.

September West Texas Intermediate settled 6.56% higher, up USD 5.20, at USD 84.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. October Brent on the Intercontinental Exchange in London closed 7.32% higher, a USD 6.01 gain, at USD 88.09.

The production figure compares with 2.33 million bpd in the same three months of 2025, and represents a 4.1% increase over the first quarter. Petrobras attributed the gain to the ramp-up of the Maria Quiteria FPSO at the Jubarte field, Alexandre de Gusmao at Mero, and P-78 at Buzios, plus the start of production at P-79 at Buzios in May.

Downstream matched upstream. Refinery utilization hit 101%, a Petrobras record, against 95% in the first quarter, with refined product output at 1.918 million bpd, about 6% higher quarter on quarter.

President Donald Trump said the United States would strike Iran with force in retaliation for Tehran's attacks on American forces in the Middle East. He said he would allow Iran to continue negotiating, without giving details. The United States joined Saudi Arabia in attacking Tehran-backed militias in Iraq after Iran launched a series of missiles at American forces in the region. Iran rejected an Omani proposal for joint management of the Strait of Hormuz, saying the plan had no chance of success.

The war premium had already built earlier in the month. On July 17, Brent futures closed USD 3.87 higher, or 4.59%, at USD 88.10 a barrel, while WTI settled up USD 3.54, or 4.48%, at USD 82.49. Both benchmarks gained about 16% over that week, with Brent posting a third consecutive weekly advance and WTI a second.

That session followed United States strikes on bridges and an airport in Iran, while Tehran hit a power plant and a desalination facility in Kuwait. Iran said it had carried out fresh attacks on American installations in the Middle East, including a first direct offensive in Syria, after six consecutive nights of American strikes. Prices reached their highest level in more than a month.

Brazilian oil equities tracked the move on July 17. PETR3 closed up 2.62% at BRL 45.81 and PETR4 rose 2.53% to BRL 40.90, while PRIO3 gained 1.87% to BRL 57.85.

Shipping is the transmission channel traders are watching. Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said prices would keep rising if more tankers were hit and damaged, because shipowners would simply refuse to enter the Persian Gulf. Iran has pressed the Houthi movement to close the Red Sea route if the United States attacks Iranian energy infrastructure.

That threat is sharper than it was before the conflict. Commerzbank analysts wrote that Red Sea traffic has risen significantly since the start of the war in Iran because Saudi crude exports were redirected away from Hormuz. Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said much of Saudi Arabia's export volume was rerouted to the port of Yanbu via the East-West pipeline to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, making any such development a genuine threat. Maritime transport now faces a possible Red Sea closure on top of restrictions on Hormuz traffic.