Petrobras Trades at 5.6 Times Earnings Against Chevron Near 30
Petrobras US-listed shares carry a price-to-earnings ratio close to 5.6 times over the trailing 12 months, against roughly 11 times for TotalEnergies and approximately 30 times for Chevron, according to Yahoo Finance data cited in analyst coverage.
BTG projects the Petrobras multiple could rise to 8.4 times by year-end while remaining below several international peers. The gap sits at the center of how global investors price a producer whose fuel pricing carries political exposure.
That exposure is measurable. XP reported that Petrobras gasoline prices ran 3.4% below import parity in early July, while diesel carried a premium of 3.2%. Diesel had been supported by a subsidy of BRL 1.12 per litre, suspended at the start of the month, and BTG flags the risk of a cut to the BRL 0.44 per litre gasoline subsidy. The federal subsidy program created to compensate companies for diesel sales is said to have added BRL 4.7 billion to Petrobras resources.
The stock's run this year tracked crude. Petrobras opened 2026 near BRL 30 and reached BRL 49.80 on April 13, following a barrel that moved from about USD 70 to close to USD 120 after the Middle East conflict began on February 28. After Donald Trump announced a 20% toll in the Strait of Hormuz, PETR3 rose 3.44% to BRL 45.71 and PETR4 gained 2.55% to BRL 40.65 on Monday the 13th.
The operating sensitivity behind those moves is large. Historical Petrobras references indicate each USD 10 change in Brent can shift operating cash flow by roughly USD 5 billion.
The recent share decline is read as a natural correction after tensions between the Trump administration and Iran eased, attributed to the shrinking geopolitical risk premium in oil. Lower crude prices are also seen as reducing political pressure on the company's fuel pricing policy.
Distribution forecasts have been trimmed. Terra Investimentos cut its Petrobras dividend yield projection to 12.2% from 14.2% for 2026 and to 13.2% from 15.3% for 2027. BTG estimates total shareholder return, combining dividends and net buybacks, at 7% in 2026, 10% in 2027 and 11% in 2028. Itau BBA projects a dividend yield of about 12% for 2027.
Price targets diverge on the crude assumption. Terra Investimentos maintains a buy rating with targets of BRL 44 for PETR3 and BRL 48 for PETR4, assuming Brent between USD 70 and USD 75 in the second half. Santander upgraded the stock from neutral to outperform, lifting its ADR target to USD 24 from USD 19.80 and its PETR3 target to BRL 60 from BRL 49.70. Goldman Sachs keeps a buy recommendation, citing production expansion capacity and cash flow strength.
Earnings have not moved in a straight line. Petrobras profit fell 7.2% in the first quarter of 2026, reported on May 12. A later item dated July 29 recorded a production record with shares up more than 2%. The Daily Journal published its analyst roundup on July 27 at 15:15, referencing InfoMoney coverage from the same day at 15:00.
For investors comparing US-listed oil exposure, the arithmetic is stark: the same trailing earnings buy roughly five times more equity in Petrobras than in Chevron, with a subsidy regime in flux and a cash flow line that swings USD 5 billion on a USD 10 Brent move.