EIA Lifts Henry Hub Gas Price Forecasts for 2026 and 2027
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its Henry Hub spot price forecast for 2026 to USD 3.60 per MMBtu in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The agency projects the benchmark will average USD 3.46 per MMBtu in 2027.
The revisions land against a softer near-term spot market. Henry Hub averaged USD 2.94 per MMBtu in May, up 17 cents from April, according to the EIA.
Production outlook drives the call
The EIA forecasts U.S. marketed natural gas production will grow by 3.3% in 2026, or about 3.9 Bcfpd, and by a further 2.5% in 2027. The agency now expects the United States will produce 4.6 Bcfpd more natural gas in 2027 than it had projected in the January STEO.
The EIA attributes the upward revision almost entirely to higher associated natural gas in the Permian region than it had previously expected. Associated gas, produced as a by-product of crude oil drilling, is largely insensitive to gas prices and depends on oil-directed activity in the basin.
Context
Henry Hub is the U.S. benchmark spot price for natural gas and the reference for most North American gas contracts. A higher production trajectory typically caps price upside, yet the EIA's forecast still places 2026 and 2027 averages above the May spot level. The agency has not published, in the claims provided, the demand-side assumptions reconciling stronger supply with firmer forward prices.
The Permian skew in the revision matters for basis differentials and pipeline utilization out of West Texas, where takeaway capacity has repeatedly tightened as oil-linked gas volumes climb.
Source: rigzone.com (opens in a new tab)1 sourcePermalink