IEEFA Questions Demand Case for Two Southeast Gas Pipelines Tied to Data Centers
The MSX pipeline would carry up to 2.1 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas across 199 miles from Greenville, Mississippi to Butler, Alabama at an estimated cost of USD 1.7 billion, according to IEEFA. IEEFA argues the demand forecasts behind the project and a companion line lean on overstated data center growth.
The second project, SSE4, would add about 1.3 bcf/day of capacity on the Southern Natural Gas Company's South Main Line at an estimated USD 3.5 billion, according to IEEFA. Both lines are proposed to enter service in late 2028, according to IEEFA.
Utilities have locked in most of the capacity ahead of construction. Atlanta Gas Light, Dominion Energy South Carolina, Southern Company Services, Oglethorpe Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority hold contracts for more than 90% of the MSX pipeline's capacity, according to IEEFA. For SSE4, Dominion Energy South Carolina, Southern Company, and Oglethorpe Power have contracted for more than 98% of the capacity, according to IEEFA.
IEEFA disputes the underlying growth assumptions. Natural gas demand in the southeast fell by an average of 0.78% a year between 2017 and 2025, with peak demand spikes variable rather than trending upward, according to IEEFA.
IEEFA states that Kinder Morgan's projections of data center-driven electricity demand growth in the southeast run significantly higher than those of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, the regulatory body focused on grid reliability.
Source: ieefa.org (opens in a new tab)1 sourcePermalink