Monday, 20 July 2026

Commercial crude oil held outside the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the United States shed 1.7 million barrels between the weeks ending July 3 and July 10, 2026, Rigzone reported, citing the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

That draw pulled inventories to 409.7 million barrels on July 10, from 411.4 million a week earlier. The same week a year prior, on July 11, 2025, the figure sat at 422.2 million barrels. The EIA put the current level roughly six percent under the five-year seasonal average.

The SPR itself thinned to 316.5 million barrels on July 10 from 319.5 million on July 3. Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen counted a further three million barrels drawn from the reserve, which he said brought the cumulative post-war release close to 100 million barrels.

Refiners leaned hard into the summer season. Crude inputs averaged 17.1 million barrels per day for the week ending July 10, up 99,000 barrels per day on the prior week, the EIA reported, with plants running at 96.2 percent of operable capacity.

Gasoline stocks fell 1.5 million barrels, and Hansen said Gulf Coast holdings hit their lowest since 2017, a sign he tied to regional tightness through the peak driving months.

Hansen also logged crude exports climbing to 3.7 million barrels per day, still under the one-year average of 4.2 million barrels per day and far short of the 6.4 million barrels per day record set in May.

Macquarie strategists Vikas Dwivedi and Walt Chancellor told clients they expect the renewed US-Iran tension to prove short-lived, arguing that both governments face binding economic and political limits, according to Rigzone.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has clawed back most of its earlier losses, the bank said. The 7-day moving average of crude, condensate and clean products, spanning gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and naphtha, ran at about 54% of the level seen before the fighting, according to Rigzone. On that basis the shortfall against that earlier baseline had shrunk to eight million barrels per day.

The rebuild has drained inventory sitting on tankers. Floating storage in the Middle East Gulf, which had swelled to 150 million barrels, has since fallen below 10 million barrels, Macquarie said, according to Rigzone. Loadings inside the Strait climbed quickly over the same stretch.

J.P. Morgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva read the flow data differently, telling Rigzone that fresh strikes between the two countries had cut Hormuz throughput sharply and undone a good part of the gains built up in recent weeks.

The same team named three unresolved risks for refining: how badly Middle Eastern refining plants have been hit after months of conflict, when a policy push revives Chinese refinery runs, and how fast Russia's refining system repairs damage from repeated Ukrainian drone attacks, according to Rigzone.

Crude gave back ground on the day, said Monte Safieddine of Capital.com, unwinding Wednesday's rally while holding a gain of more than 5% for the week, according to Rigzone.

Two contractors on the GranMorgu offshore project have agreed to trial wind-assisted kite traction on the tow of a floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel bound for waters off Suriname, Offshore Engineer OEDigital reported. The STS joint venture, set up by SBM Offshore and Technip Energies, signed the deal with Beyond the Sea alongside TotalEnergies EP Suriname.

Under the agreement, the group plans to install and run Beyond the Sea's SeaKite 2400 system while the GranMorgu FPSO is towed from its Chinese construction yard to its operating site off Suriname, according to Offshore Engineer OEDigital.

The trial is designed to cut towing time and fuel use, and to test whether kite-assisted propulsion works on large offshore vessels. The partners call it the first time such kite towing has been applied to an FPSO.

ReconAfrica reported that its Kavango West 1X well brought hydrocarbons to surface from the Elandshoek formation, which the company called the first hydrocarbons produced to surface onshore Namibia.

The formation's uppermost zone, measuring 47 metres, was flared across three flow tests, and the well stayed open to flow for roughly 24 hours combined, yielding natural gas and liquids at intermittent rates, according to ReconAfrica.

Pressure readings climbed across the sequence of tests. Ahead of the second flow test, ReconAfrica measured 2,300 psi through the 5-inch production casing, which it said points to hydrocarbon deliverability.

Attention now turns to the Huttenberg formation, where the company has logged net pay. Three Huttenberg zones cover 182 metres of reservoir section and contain 76 net metres of hydrocarbon pay identified from well logs.

ReconAfrica expects each Huttenberg zone to take up to about 10 days to test, and plans its next production update by late August. The well started testing on June 8, 2026.

On the well, ReconAfrica works with BW Energy at a 20% working interest and NAMCOR at a 10% carried working interest.

S&P Global expects U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) to rank as the country's second-largest net export industry by 2031, citing faster investment, wider export capacity and stronger global demand.

Feedgas demand tied to LNG will double to 36 Bcfd within five years as new export terminals start up, according to S&P Global. That figure sits 25% above the firm's earlier base-case projection.

The firm links the sharper outlook to the lifting of the U.S. LNG permitting pause in early 2025. Seven final investment decisions on new projects have followed, and S&P Global expects more to move ahead within the year.

"The profound growth of U.S. LNG is exceeding all expectations," said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global and chair of the study.

S&P Global estimates the supply chain will draw more than USD 1 trillion in investment through 2040. The firm puts the annual employment effect at about 555,000 jobs and the GDP contribution at USD 1.4 trillion.

Domestic bills stay modest under the forecast. S&P Global sees average residential natural gas costs rising roughly 1.6% between 2026 and 2031, with Henry Hub prices held down by ample domestic supply and a wide pipeline network.

Delay carries a cost abroad, the firm cautions. Holding back recently sanctioned export projects could tighten global markets by 2031 and push LNG prices in Europe and Asia up by as much as 50%, according to S&P Global.

Pipeline capacity remains the main brake on further domestic growth, S&P Global said, singling out the U.S. Northeast, where added takeaway capacity could ease seasonal price swings and firm up regional supply.

EA Analytics said Russian oil-processing rates have sunk to their weakest level in more than twenty years after the recent bombing of refineries.

The most recent hits struck the Afipsky refinery in southern Russia and the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat plant near the Urals mountains, according to the statement cited by Rigzone. Gazprom PJSC, owner of the Salavat facility, runs it at 200,000 barrels a day.

Afipsky handles 180,000 barrels a day and has drawn repeated Ukrainian drone attacks, the last in early June.

Moscow halted vessel traffic on the Don-Azov Channel, the waterway tying the Sea of Azov to the Don River, Reuters reported Friday. The Kerch Strait, linking the Sea of Azov with the Black Sea, was also shut, Reuters said, after strikes earlier this month on Russian ships in the Sea of Azov.

The EIA now sees U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, averaging 13.78 million barrels per day in 2026, according to Rigzone's account of the July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). That forecast pushes the projection closer to 14 million barrels per day.

The July figure marks an upward revision. The June STEO had projected 2026 output at 13.72 million barrels per day, Rigzone reported.

For 2027, the EIA projects U.S. crude oil production will average 14.03 million barrels per day, according to the same STEO.

U.S. crude oil production has never averaged 14 million barrels per day or above, either annually or monthly, according to EIA figures cited by Rigzone. The highest average monthly U.S. field production was recorded in April 2026 at 13.934 million barrels per day.

The EIA expects the Federal Gulf of America to contribute 1.99 million barrels per day to 2026 U.S. crude oil production, with Alaska adding 0.45 million barrels per day, Rigzone reported.

Separately, the Energy Institute's statistical review put U.S. oil production at 21.065 million barrels per day in 2025, a 3.9 percent year-on-year increase.

ConocoPhillips will acquire 42% of BP's stake in a venture redeveloping Iraq's Kirkuk oil fields, according to a BP statement reported by Rigzone.

The development and production contract covers an initial phase of more than 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent from Kirkuk, Rigzone reported.

The deal marks a return to Iraq for ConocoPhillips, which left the country more than a decade ago, according to Rigzone.

Financial terms of the partnership were not disclosed in Friday's company announcements, Rigzone said. The agreement is to be signed as part of Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi's trip to the US this week.

Al-Zaidi's US visit is also expected to bring a Chevron signing on Friday that will advance the company's negotiations about investing in large oil fields and a pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, according to Rigzone.