China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration (NEA) published the 15th five-year plan for the development of the coal industry on 10 August, covering the period 2026-2030, according to Carbon Brief.
The document stops short of naming a year for peak coal consumption. Instead it carries a broader goal to peak use of the fuel during the five-year period, Carbon Brief reported.
On the production side, the plan sets a target of raising the share of coal produced by what it calls large-scale, modernised coal mines to 87% by 2030, per Carbon Brief.
The policy lands as coal's weight in the domestic energy system slips. In the first half of 2026, coal supplied less than 50% of China's power generation, while its share of total energy consumption fell to 51.4%, according to Carbon Brief.
Kevin Tu of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy read the document plainly. "This is clearly neither a coal phase-out nor phase-down plan," Tu told Carbon Brief.
Li Shuo, China climate hub director at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told Carbon Brief that the Middle East conflict will reinforce coal's role in China's energy system, both as a source of energy and as a feedstock for commodities.