University of Cape Town Modeling Puts Unmanaged Secunda Shutdown at $550 Million in Lost GDP
An unmanaged shutdown of Sasol's Secunda coal-to-liquids plant would strip $550 million from South Africa's economy, according to researchers cited by Semafor Net Zero. The estimate comes from modeling by University of Cape Town researchers.
Secunda is the world's largest single-site greenhouse gas emitter and supplies close to a third of South Africa's domestic fuel, Semafor Net Zero reported, describing the plant as both an economic powerhouse and an environmental headache.
That dual role explains why the modeling matters even though no closure is on the table. The University of Cape Town work landed while Sasol contends with shareholder activism and banks pulling funding from high-carbon assets, according to Semafor Net Zero.
Sasol set out plans last year to cut the budget it had earmarked for emissions reductions, a move worth as much as $1 billion in savings, while holding to a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 30% by 2030, per the same report. Semafor Net Zero characterised the decision as a set of trade-offs between capital discipline and the company's emissions promises.
Coal supplies roughly 80% of South African power, and the country is the continent's largest polluter, Semafor Net Zero reported, leaving its industrial heartland exposed to international climate pressure.
Source: semafor.com (opens in a new tab)1 sourcePermalink