UK Raises 2050 Aviation Emissions Forecast to 28.1MtCO2e as SAF Assumptions Are Cut
The UK government's revised aviation forecast puts emissions in 2050 nearly 50% above the level expected under the jet-zero strategy launched by the previous Conservative government, according to Carbon Brief.
The jet-zero strategy had aviation emissions peaking at 38.2m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) and falling to 19.3MtCO2e by 2050. The government's new technology development pathway, which assumes ambitious carbon abatement measures, brings emissions down only to 28.1MtCO2e in that year, Carbon Brief reported.
Two assumptions carry most of the change. Sustainable aviation fuels are now expected to supply 30% of aviation fuel by 2050 rather than 50%. Fuel-efficiency gains have been marked down to 1.3% per year in the technology development scenario, from 2% per year in the jet-zero strategy.
A separate current trends pathway, which assumes no new policies, has emissions rising to 41.1MtCO2e by 2050, according to Carbon Brief.
The Labour government has signalled support for a contentious third runway at Heathrow airport, with a final planning decision expected by 2029.
Source: carbonbrief.org (opens in a new tab)1 sourcePermalink