EIA Sees US Crude Output Hitting Record 13.8 MMbpd in 2026
US crude oil production is set to average a record 13.8 MMbpd in 2026, according to the Energy Information Administration's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, reported by World Oil. That would beat the previous annual record of 13.7 MMbpd set in 2025.
Output has already run at that record pace. Production averaged 13.7 MMbpd during first-half 2026, up roughly 300,000 bpd, or 2%, from the same period a year earlier, World Oil reported.
The Permian basin remains the largest single contributor. EIA forecasts Permian crude production will average 6.8 MMbpd this year, a 3% gain on 2025, supported by higher oil prices and continued oil-directed drilling.
Prices have moved in the producers' favor. WTI crude averaged USD 84 per barrel through August, against USD 65 per barrel in 2025, according to World Oil.
Offshore volumes grew faster in percentage terms than the national total. Federal offshore crude production rose by about 200,000 bpd, or 10%, in first-half 2026 versus the same stretch of 2025. For the full year, EIA expects Gulf production to add 3%, or roughly 100,000 bpd.
New deepwater capacity is behind part of that gain. The Shenandoah floating production unit has averaged approximately 70,000 bpd since coming online in July 2025, World Oil reported.
Source: worldoil.com (opens in a new tab)1 sourcePermalink