Sunday, 12 July 2026

Oil and gas executives surveyed for the second quarter 2026 Dallas Fed Energy Survey put the average Henry Hub natural gas price at $3.36 per MMBtu by the end of 2026, according to Rigzone. That estimate came from 123 firms and ran above the $3.15 per MMBtu average daily spot price recorded during the survey period.

Forecasts among the 123 firms spanned a wide range, with a low of $2.00 per MMBtu and a high of $4.65 per MMBtu, according to Rigzone.

A separate question drew responses from 97 firms, whose mean forecasts climbed further out the curve. Rigzone reported executives gave $3.35 per MMBtu at the six-month mark, $3.45 at one year, $3.75 at two years, and $4.14 at five years.

The August natural gas contract closed at $3.275 per MMBtu on Tuesday, a rise of 9.4 cents or 3.0 percent from Monday's close, according to Rigzone.

EBW Energy Analyst Eli Rubin said the August contract tested as high as $3.328 on Tuesday afternoon before falling alongside cooler weather forecasts over the eastern U.S. into mid-July.

Rubin also said the natural gas surplus to five-year norms may reach an injection-season high above 160 billion cubic feet with the Thursday EIA report.

The United States produced 1,073.7 bcm of natural gas in 2025, accounting for 25.6 percent of total production that year, according to a review cited by Rigzone.

Global natural gas production reached 4,196.5 bcm in 2025, a 1.6 percent year-on-year increase, Rigzone reported from the review.

Russia ranked as the second biggest producer at 609.4 bcm, a 3.0 percent decline from the prior year, according to the review. Iran was third with 264.8 bcm, representing 6.3 percent of total production, Rigzone reported.

On the demand side, the United States was the biggest consumer at 913.4 bcm, or 21.8 percent of total global consumption, according to the review. China was the third biggest consumer at 441.9 bcm, with demand growing by an average of 8.5 percent per year from 2015 to 2025, Rigzone reported.

Gas-fired power generation grew by only 0.6 percent in 2025, with the majority of consumption growth driven by other consumers such as chemicals, according to the review.

Consumption growth was concentrated in Europe at 4.2 percent, Africa at 3.6 percent, and the Middle East at 2.9 percent, Rigzone reported.

Kyrgyzstan asked regional partners Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan this week to help secure gasoline supplies for its domestic market, according to a statement from its Energy Ministry cited by Rigzone.

The request follows gasoline shortages in Russia, where refinery outages tied to Ukrainian drone attacks have cut into fuel supplies, Rigzone reported. By the end of June, roughly 90% of Russian regions had reported fuel rationing or some form of supply disruption, based on statements from local authorities and media reports cited by Rigzone.

Moscow blocked gasoline exports starting April 1, with exemptions for shipments under intergovernmental agreements that cover some Central Asian nations, according to Rigzone.

Uzbek prices show the strain. On the commodity exchange, AI-92 gasoline rose 11.8% since the start of June, reaching 13.9 million soums (USD 1,163) a ton, Rigzone reported. Daily supply of gasoline on that exchange dropped by about 50% on June 1 against the previous week, according to Rigzone.

Kazakhstan, the region's largest oil producer, halted rail exports of certain petroleum products and light distillates and tightened its border, cutting vehicle crossings to once a day, Rigzone reported. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov on June 20 directed officials to take every measure needed to head off fuel shortages, including firmer border controls, according to Rigzone.

Russia launched drone and missile strikes on Kyiv that killed at least 17 people, according to Semafor Net Zero, in retaliation for recent Ukrainian attacks that have hit Russia's economy.

Ukraine has taken out almost 30% of Russia's refining capacity over the past few weeks, Semafor Net Zero reported, causing widespread fuel shortages. The shortages have weakened Russian President Vladimir Putin's standing and sparked rare signs of dissent, according to the same report.

The EU has begun disbursing billions of dollars to strengthen Kyiv's defenses and announced new sanctions on the Kremlin, Semafor Net Zero reported.

"We keep raising the cost until Russia understands it cannot win," the bloc's chief diplomat wrote on X.

Wage talks under state mediation began Wednesday between Norwegian unions for offshore drilling and floating platform crews and their employers, with both sides trying to stop a walkout set for Friday that would idle four named installations, according to Offshore Engineer OEDigital.

Styrke, Safe and DSO put the first wave of strikers at more than 600 members, with room to widen the action, according to Offshore Engineer OEDigital. The disputed pay deal spans roughly 7,500 workers.

A first walkout would pull crews off Transocean's Encourage rig, Odfjell Technology's Linus rig, the AKOFS Seafarer well intervention vessel and Equinor's Gullfaks B platform, the outlet reported.

Production has already taken a hit. Aker BP closed one production well at its Tambar oilfield in the North Sea, citing the labour dispute, according to Offshore Engineer OEDigital. That well ran at about 4,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, an Aker BP spokesman said.

Employer group Offshore Norway put this week's likely output cut from the oil service strike at about 12,000 boepd, according to Offshore Engineer OEDigital. Should the stoppage run past mid-July, the group said losses could top 120,000 boepd against Norwegian output that averages around 4 million boepd.

Positions stiffened before Wednesday's session. The employer side locked out about 1,000 workers, while Safe added 63 members to its strike from Wednesday, the outlet reported.

Saudi Arabia shipped 6.3 million barrels a day of crude oil in the six days through Wednesday, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That level puts flows at about the same as the 2025 average and at almost 90% of February volumes.

If sustained, the shipments would mark a significant jump from June, when exports ran at about 4.45 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg tanker tracking.

Saudi ships have been ramping up volumes from Ras Tanura, sending the first supertankers into the Gulf of Oman since the Iran war began.

The rebound follows an interim peace deal agreed by Washington and Tehran that included an agreement allowing ships to pass through Hormuz again. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has continued to claim it controls the Strait of Hormuz despite the interim deal.

India will expand its oil reserves, add storage capacity and widen supply partnerships following price volatility during the Iran war, according to World Oil.

The move comes after state refiners took heavy losses on fuel sales. Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said government-owned refiners lost a combined 747.81 billion rupees (USD 7.8 billion) on diesel, gasoline and LPG in the April-June quarter.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to open a greenfield refinery in Rajasthan on Saturday with capacity of 180,000 barrels a day, World Oil reported. The plant will lift the country's oil imports by a further 150,000 barrels a day.

National refining capacity is projected to climb roughly 20% to 6.2 million barrels a day by 2030, per World Oil.

Puri contrasted that build-out with declining capacity elsewhere. He said the United States has gone 50 years without a greenfield refinery and that Europe is shedding refining capacity.

The planned reserve build follows a sharp reversal in oil prices. World Oil reported that crude has slumped, erasing every gain booked during the conflict, once flows widened through the Strait of Hormuz after an interim U.S.-Iran peace deal.

Two fresh discoveries and one appraisal well offshore Suriname have pushed PETRONAS to eight successful wells in Block 52, with total recoverable resources there now above 1 billion boe, according to World Oil.

At Caiman-1, drillers hit several oil-bearing Cretaceous sandstone intervals, reaching a total depth of 5,065 m in 90 m of water, World Oil reported.

The second well, Swartzia Aspasia Complex-1 (SAC-1), cut through gas-bearing sandstone reservoirs, according to World Oil. Crews drilled it in 610 m of water, roughly 8 km east of the Sloanea-1 gas discovery.

PETRONAS holds an 80% operating stake in the block, with Paradise Oil Company, a Staatsolie subsidiary, holding the other 20%, World Oil reported.

The latest wells extend work that began with the commerciality declaration for the Sloanea gas field in November 2025, according to World Oil. A final investment decision on that development is targeted before the end of 2026.

PETRONAS COO Mohd Jukris Abdul Wahab pointed to the eight successful wells in Suriname and the more than one billion boe unlocked as the measure of the campaign's progress.

NG Energy began drilling its Magico-2X well on June 26, the second of six planned wells in the Sinú-9 campaign in Colombia, World Oil reported. The well targets the Pre-CDO-San Cayetano formation, where the earlier Hechicero-1X well returned encouraging results.

Magico-2X is designed for a total measured depth of 7,500 ft, with drilling and completion projected at roughly 35 days before the well is tied into the central processing facility, according to World Oil.

Hechicero-1X has proven productive in the same formation, testing at rates as high as 26.4 MMcfgd from the Pre-CDO-San Cayetano interval, World Oil reported. Operator Maurel & Prom Colombia is holding that well to a managed rate near 15 MMcfgd to protect long-term reservoir performance.

Gross output across the Sinú-9 field currently runs at about 17.5 MMcfgd, according to World Oil.

On the financing side, NG Energy confirmed a $15 million installment from Etablissements Maurel & Prom tied to the Sinú-9 transaction, lifting proceeds received under the deal to roughly $135 million.

A September close is in view for Sunda Energy's purchase of producing acreage in the Taranaki basin of New Zealand, World Oil reported.

The target is Matahio NZ, which Sunda agreed in April to buy. Its portfolio spans four petroleum mining permits and a single exploration permit across the North Island, per World Oil.

Output from the acreage ran to 1,036 boed over the opening five months of 2026. Sunda puts the full-year figure at roughly 1,052 boed, according to World Oil.

Cash flow from the New Zealand barrels came in ahead of plan, and Sunda has left the second financing tranche for the deal untouched as a result.

Separately, Sunda said it sat down with Timor-Leste's upstream regulator and its state partner TIMOR GAP after a notice signaling intent to terminate the Chuditch production sharing contract, World Oil reported.

TotalEnergies is marketing millions of barrels of Iraqi crude for prompt delivery to Asian buyers, adding to a market already well supplied, traders told Rigzone.

The company is marketing Basrah Medium and Basrah Heavy grades to refiners, according to Rigzone. It is offering to collect and deliver the shipments to customers in South Korea, Taiwan, and China.

Refiners in Asia outside China received offers for Basrah Medium at a premium of more than USD 1 a barrel to the Dubai benchmark, Rigzone reported.

TotalEnergies has been seeking supertankers capable of carrying two million barrels of crude, traders said, with cargoes available for arrival in July and August or the coming months.

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz picked up after an interim peace deal between the US and Iran, giving Asian refiners more than enough options to meet their supply needs, according to Rigzone.

Brent blend for August delivery settled at USD 73.15 per barrel on June 29, a week-on-week fall of USD 4.75 per barrel, or 6.1%, according to Rigzone.

Standard Chartered Bank Energy Research Head Emily Ashford said oil's softening trend had continued as the return of easy barrels outpaces demand recovery.

Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) appear oversold on a Relative Strength Index (RSI) basis, with Brent at 28.89 and WTI at 29.99, according to Rigzone.

The supply picture reflects added output from producers. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman agreed on June 7 to boost production by 188,000 barrels per day in July. OPEC+ is next scheduled to meet on July 5, according to OPEC's website.

The U.S. Treasury issued a 60-day waiver on June 22 on all existing sanctions on the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian crude, valid until August 21, according to Rigzone.

J.P. Morgan analysts said the estimated value of open interest in energy markets decreased by 5%, or USD 36 billion, week on week to USD 722 billion.

Saxo Bank noted Brent was trading near unchanged on the week, having returned to pre-war levels, with support emerging ahead of USD 70.

The United States was the world's largest oil producer in 2025, pumping 21.065 million barrels per day, according to the Energy Institute. That output represented a 3.9 percent rise year on year and 20.9 percent of the world's total oil production.

Saudi Arabia ranked second, producing 11.408 million barrels per day, a 5.1 percent increase from the prior year and 11.3 percent of global output, the Energy Institute reported. Russia followed in third place with 10.737 million barrels per day, a 0.2 percent decline year on year and 10.7 percent of the global total.

Total world oil production reached 100.590 million barrels per day in 2025, a 3.5 percent rise from the previous year, according to the Energy Institute.

The United States also led global demand, consuming 19.404 million barrels per day in 2025, or 18.8 percent of global oil consumption, the Energy Institute review showed. That figure marked a 1.3 percent year on year increase.

China was the second largest consumer, using 17.360 million barrels per day, a 2.7 percent rise year on year and 16.8 percent of total consumption, according to the Energy Institute.

Total global oil consumption came in at 103.039 million barrels per day in 2025, a 1.3 percent growth rate, the Energy Institute said.

The Energy Institute said the declining growth rate trend in oil consumption reversed in 2025, with China, the United States, and Western Africa the largest contributors.

Transocean reached a conditional agreement with Equinor to supply three harsh-environment Cat D semisubmersible rigs for work on the Norwegian continental shelf, according to Offshore Magazine.

Under the Letter of Intent, the combined value to Transocean exceeds USD 1 billion over seven rig years, excluding additional services, Offshore Magazine reported. Day rates should exceed USD 400,000 per day on commencement, according to the same report.

Equinor said the arrangement would help cut well costs, speed up the drilling of new wells and allow it to maintain high production levels through 2035.

Rune Nedregaard, Senior Vice President for Wells, said Equinor's ambition for the Norwegian continental shelf is production of 1.3 MMboe in 2035. Around 70% of that production will come from new wells, according to Offshore Magazine.

The forward hull section for Shell's Gato do Mato floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel has been completed at Sumitomo Heavy Industries' (SHI-ME) Yokosuka shipyard in Japan, according to Offshore Magazine.

MODEC said the structure is now sailing to China for integration with the aft hull section currently under construction.

Gato do Mato is the first FPSO to feature MODEC's Next Generation Hull design, according to Offshore Magazine. It will be stationed at the Orca field in 2,000 m of water, 200 km south of Rio de Janeiro.

The FPSO has 120,000 b/d capacity and is the 19th FPSO/FSO developed by MODEC for operations offshore Brazil.

Soichi Ide, head of MODEC's Floating Production Solutions Business Unit, said partnering with SHI-ME on FPSO hull construction for the first time and adopting a multi-yard construction model pioneers a new approach to hull fabrication.