IEEFA: Fuel Excise Removal Puts Australia's July Inflation Relief at Risk
Australian inflation fell 0.3 percentage points in July to 3.5%, a decline IEEFA attributes largely to a smaller contribution from housing, but the specialist research group warns the relief will not carry into August as fuel excise relief ends.
Transport fuel worked against that easing even in July, adding 0.2 percentage points to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), according to IEEFA.
The excise arithmetic explains why. IEEFA reports the fuel excise cut ran at 26.3 cents per litre from April to June, was trimmed to 16 cents per litre in July, and was removed in August. Since the start of August, retail petrol has run about 21 cents per litre above average July prices and diesel about 34 cents per litre higher, IEEFA said.
International product markets are compounding the excise step-up. In the week of 19 August, IEEFA found diesel prices 82% above pre-crisis levels and petrol 53% higher, against a 29% rise in crude oil measured in Australian dollars. The gap between refined products and crude places the pressure on the fuels Australian road freight and passenger vehicles actually buy, rather than on the barrel itself.
The Reserve Bank of Australia estimated that oil accounts for 2-2.5% of domestic production and distribution costs, IEEFA noted, giving a channel through which pump prices feed into the broader basket beyond the direct transport component.
Exposure to that channel has widened over time. IEEFA found Australia's diesel intensity rose 33% between 2000 and 2024, while global diesel intensity fell 31% on average over the same period. A domestic economy using more diesel per unit of activity absorbs a given diesel price move more heavily than the global average.
The combination IEEFA describes leaves the August print facing three additive pressures at once: the full excise restored, refined product cracks running well ahead of crude, and a freight and logistics base that has grown more diesel-dependent for a quarter of a century.
Source: ieefa.org (opens in a new tab)1 sourcePermalink