China's Q2 2026 CO2 Emissions Fall 1% as Oil Use Slumps, Carbon Brief Says
China's carbon dioxide emissions fell by 1% in the second quarter of 2026, with oil consumption plummeting amid the strait of Hormuz crisis, according to a Carbon Brief analysis.
The composition of the decline breaks with every previous episode. Carbon Brief said this is the first time reductions in oil consumption have been responsible for a fall in China's CO2 emissions overall, with coal consumption having been the main driver in all earlier cases.
Crude oil processing volumes dropped 11% during the quarter, Carbon Brief reported, and China cut oil imports by 32%. Some of the processing shortfall was absorbed by drawing down oil product inventories, with Sinopec sales down 9%.
Power generation moved the other way. Carbon Brief identified the power sector as the largest source of emissions growth in the quarter, with coal use up 2.4% while gas-fired generation fell 1.2%.
Structural demand destruction sat alongside the crisis-driven cuts. Oil consumption displaced by electric vehicles in China in the first half of 2026 exceeded total oil consumption in the UK over a six-month period, according to Carbon Brief.
Coal demand from chemicals producers also came in below expectations. Carbon Brief said annual growth in coal use for chemicals production slowed to 8%, from 15% in 2025 and 19% in the first quarter, defying expectations of a boom.
Source: carbonbrief.org (opens in a new tab)1 sourcePermalink