Tuesday, 8 September 2026

Coal generation has stopped growing in 17 of China's 26 provinces and regions, according to a new report by energy think tank Ember.

The same report finds fossil fuel use reaching its peak in eight of 11 industrial sectors, Ember said. Taken together, the two measures describe a plateau rather than a retreat, with fossil fuels flattening as renewables supply a larger share of generation in what Semafor Net Zero described as a new phase for the country's energy transition.

Ember analysts attributed the shift to rising electrification rather than any contraction in industrial activity, and said the effect is concentrated in the more demanding parts of the economy. That distinction matters for how the numbers read: a flat coal line paired with shrinking output would point one way, while a flat coal line paired with electrified industrial demand points another.

The provincial split is the sharper of the two findings. Nine of the 26 provinces and regions covered by Ember are still adding coal generation, meaning the plateau is national in aggregate but uneven on the ground. On the industrial side, three of the 11 sectors Ember tracked have not yet reached a fossil fuel peak.

China's electricity demand grew 5% in 2025, and clean generation covered the entire increase, pushing coal-fired output into its first annual decline in ten years, according to a report by Ember.

The retreat is spread across the country. Of 26 Chinese provinces and regions Ember examined over 2021 to 2025, coal generation had ceased growing in 17. Coal supplied under half of national electricity output in the first half of the year, Climate Home News reported.

Eight of the 11 industrial sectors Ember tracks now burn less fossil fuel than at their peak, with reductions ranging from 26% to 71%, the report found.

Electricity covered 29% of Chinese final energy consumption in 2024. The equivalent share was roughly 23% in Europe and 21% in the US.

Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst at Ember and the report's lead author, told Climate Home News that the country's industrial economy is changing its energy base, and that a peak in fossil fuel use is "increasingly coming into view".

BASF said a new plant it opened in southern China draws its energy entirely from renewable sources, and that site emissions could run 50% below those of conventional petrochemical facilities, according to the company.